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Money in Jar

Money in Jar

A group needs to estimate the value of coins in a glass jar. All the jars contain $10 plus or minus few cents. Estimators are asked to estimate the value of coins and all estimates need to be approved by an approver.
Estimators are rewarded for high estimates. Approvers are also rewarded as percentage of estimator's estimated amount.
Now the estimators are divided in 2 groups - they differ in only aspect i.e. high estimation change is either abrupt or slow.
How likely is the approver going to reject the estimate in Abrupt or Slow group?
Photo Adaptation / Flickr / karen_roe
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The mistakes we make in our everyday life

• We are hardwired to make these mistakes • Few biases are simply evolutionary • These errors affect all of us including the bright ones • Experience is just not enough to overcome • but expertise is required to recognize and overcome

Few of biases as below · Anchoring - When an individual depends too heavily on an initial piece of information during decision making · Fixed pie - When we assume that our interests conflict with the other party's interests and we play adversarial · Framing - When we decide on our options differently when the options are presented with positive or negative connotations · Vividness – When we pay attention to strong features at the expense of less, that could be more impactful · Over confidence – When our subjective confidence is greater than the objective accuracy · Escalation – When initial decision is followed up with an irrational decision to justify the initial decision

Few ways to mitigate these biases are · Learn to recognize the bias · Use slow, effortful and logical thinking (System 2) · Avoid fast, automatic and effortless thinking (System 1) · Avoid negotiations which are thrust upon when not ready · Learn through use of stories, examples, exercises · Bring an outsider perspective